Just two days to go and the polls show the Conservatives with at least 34% support with Labour and the LibDems both around the 28% mark. But this ignores the 20% of people who still haven't decided where to put their crosses, so in theory it's all still to play for.
However, I don't believe that. My hunch is that some of the LibDem support will slip back to Labour and the Conservatives by Thursday, leaving them down around 22% and out of the race.
But what about the undecideds? I think there is still a stigma attached to admitting to voting Tory, at least among older people, many of whom still consider them to be what Theresa May called the nasty party. I tested this by asking my Twitter followers which of them would be voting Conservative and while only a few said openly that they would be doing so, it was striking how many DMs I received saying that they would be but they didn't want anyone else to know.
I bet this is also happening in the face-to-face polling - people are telling the polling firms that they haven't decided yet but in truth they have chosen Conservative and are ashamed to admit to people that they are going to vote for the nasty party.
It looks to me like a David Cameron victory on Thursday, and don't be surprised if it's by a wide margin.
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Do you live in one of the top 100 constituencies where you could prevent a Tory majority? http://bit.ly/bDizHY #ge2010 #ukelection
ReplyDeleteSpread the word on Twitter and Facebook.
Wish I understood UK politics. Of course, sitting down and reading all about it would help one reach that knowledge.
ReplyDeleteBased on what you've written here, I think that you have a good sense of what is going to happen on Thursday.